This article is part of our FanDuel Sportsbook series.
Introducing same game parlays! Now, you can combine multiple bets from one matchup or team into a single parlay to go for an even bigger win. Think your favorite team is going to dominate their next matchup? Bet on them to win, the total to go over, and their QB to throw over 3 TDs — all in one parlay. What Is a “Same-Game” Parlay. A same game parlay (a phrase actually trademarked by FanDuel Sportsbook), single-game, or one-game parlay, the vernacular doesn’t matter — all are just a fancy (or catchy) names for a parlay consisting of correlated wagers.
I'm taking the handoff from Andrew Laird for the playoffs, starting with Super Wild Card Weekend. It's a great football weekend as we're spoiled by three games each day, and all six contests have great storylines. On Saturday's menu, we have Buffalo's first home playoff game in 25 years, Rams-Seahawks Part III, and a Washington team looking to prove it belongs in the postseason as it faces the legendary Tom Brady and Tampa Bay.
Sunday features a playoff rematch from last year with the Titans playing host to the Ravens this time, a battle in New Orleans that the Saints expect will be the start of a deep run, and a divisional game in Pittsburgh where Cleveland will be playing its first postseason game in nearly 20 years. Any way you slice it, this is one of the best football weekends of the year.
On top of the great action, we have a fun board to analyze over at the FanDuel Sportsbook to add to the weekend's excitement. Below you'll find my favorite mix of plays for the weekend ranging from same-game parlays to player props to an interesting future that spans the length of the postseason. Let's dive in on Super Wild Card Weekend.
Ryan Tannehill Anytime Touchdown Scorer +240
This is a prop for anyone who carries the ball into the end zone or receives the ball in the end zone, so we're counting on Tannehill running one in here. Baltimore is going to be laser-focused on slowing Derrick Henry, especially when Tennessee gets the ball into the red zone. That's where Tannehill can be an X-factor with his legs. He has five red zone rushing attempts over his last three weeks and, not coincidentally, has five rushing touchdowns in that span. The Ravens defense isn't great against the run, ranking eighth-worst in YPC allowed at 4.6, and with so much bandwidth being dedicated to Henry, Tannehill is a solid bet at +240 to find his way into the end zone Sunday.
Same Game Parlay: Washington Football Team +7.5; Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline -400 (Pays +268)
This is my favorite Same Game Parlay on the board this weekend. 7.5 is a big number for a road team to cover in January, even if the offense on the other side is anemic. Let's break it down further.
The Football team racked up the sixth-most sacks in the league this season (47) thanks to an explosive pass rush fueled by rookie Chase Young (7.5), Montez Sweat (9.0), and veteran Ryan Kerrigan (5.5). If there's been an Achilles for Tom Brady in the postseason, it has been with teams featuring strong pass rushes. There's an added element of Brady's struggles in night games this season; in four primetime games, Brady is completing 60 percent of his passes at 5.73 YPA, and his TD:INT sits at 5:5. That's more anecdotal than actionable for the purposes of this wager, but it's worth noting when that split contrasts so starkly to his numbers in early or afternoon kickoffs.
That covers the spread portion of this wager. On the moneyline, it's hard to go against the Buccaneers. This is Tom Brady in the playoffs with a loaded group of skill-position talent. Even if Mike Evans (knee) isn't at 100 percent, the likes of Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are more than enough to keep the offense mostly on track. On top of that, even if Tampa struggles a bit against this Washington defense, the Football Team's offense is almost assured to struggle even more against the Buccaneer defense.
Washington ranked 31st in Yards Per Play (4.8), just a tenth of a yard ahead of the lowly Jets. The Football Team also ranked 25th in points per game. Barring a defensive or special teams touchdown, it's difficult to see Washington cresting 20 points and that won't be enough to come away with the W.
TL;DR Washington's defense keeps the Football Team within 7.5 points, but Washington's offense prevents the Football Team from advancing. Bucs win this in a close one and you profit.
If you tack on a play on the total, you can boost it to +633 on the over and +574 on the under.
Steelers (-3.5) and Under (47.5) at +210 vs. Browns
This one comes from the Game Props menu and is not technically the same-game parlay as this one features a more favorable spread to the Steelers. That parlay pays +256 but the Steelers have to cover 6.5 in that scenario, and even with Cleveland's issues, it's still tough to fully trust this Pittsburgh offense at the moment. So -3.5 with slightly less favorable odds is fine by me, and it's still over +200.
I expect this to be a low-scoring affair in which Cleveland struggles to generate much through the air even with Pittsburgh devoting much of its defensive attention to slowing the run. Baker Mayfield hasn't shown he can solve a defense of this caliber when the run game isn't clicking.
Pittsburgh will do enough to come away with the win by more than a field goal, but this has the elements of a low-scoring affair.
New Orleans (-9.5) and Allen Robinson Receiving Yardage OVER 70.5 (+290)
The public views this as the most lopsided matchup of the weekend and Vegas agrees, setting the line at New Orleans -9.5. That's a big number to cover but the Saints are a Top 5 team in football while the Bears snuck in by virtue of the expanded playoff field and have the worst Strength of Victory (.336) of any playoff team. I expect New Orleans to take care of business rather comfortably despite the Saints' recent playoff woes. Those usually come later.
Fanduel More Ways To Win
As for the Robinson total, this tails my thought that the Saints will cover. As a result, Chicago will be playing from behind for most of this game and will have to rely on Mitchell Trubisky (trying not to laugh) and the passing game to keep this competitive. While that's bad for Bears fans, it's good for Robinson backers. Robinson commands a 25.3 percent target share in the Chicago offense and he has seen a target share north of 30 percent on five different occasions this season. With Darnell Mooney (ankle) not at 100 percent, Chicago really has no viable options other than Robinson for Sunday's tilt. Look for A-Rob to push well into double-digit targets in a game the Bears lose by 10 or more.
Playoff Passing Yards: Aaron Rodgers +1000
This is a fun prop offered by the FanDuel Sportsbook as they're taking bets on the playoff passing yardage leader. Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes lead the way at +300 and +320 respectively. Allen makes sense as he has a high passing yardage projection to begin with, and he gets the added bonus (for this prop) of getting an extra game by virtue of playing this weekend. Mahomes being second makes sense, too. He had nine games with at least 300 passing yards this season and there's an expectation that the Chiefs will play in at least two, and likely three, games this postseason.
Where the board loses me is Rodgers being at +1000. Yes, Allen, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees could all theoretically play more games than Rodgers, but I'd like Rodgers to throw for more yards than all three of them even they had the same odds. At +1000? Come on.
Rodgers just capped off an MVP-level season and has the Packers seeded atop the NFC. He ranks third in the league in YPA (8.2) and I believe that Rodgers will lead the Packers to the Super Bowl, so that would be three games worth of attempts at a high efficiency. I don't mind that two of those games would be in Lambeau; Rodgers can deliver even in the elements. And if Rodgers leads Green Bay to the Super Bowl, no defense on the AFC side of the table is overly imposing short of the Steelers, who I don't expect to be alive at that point. Betting on a player like Rodgers is never a bad idea, especially when he's getting odds this favorable.
This article is part of our FanDuel Sportsbook series.
Welcome to the Divisional Round breakdown for the weekend's offerings over at the FanDuel Sportsbook. We're treated to a great four-game slate that kicks off Saturday afternoon at Lambeau Field with the Packers hosting the Rams. From there, Buffalo-Baltimore is the Saturday nightcap before Cleveland and Kansas City take center stage Sunday afternoon and a divisional rematch between two legendary quarterbacks rounds out the weekend when the Saints host the Buccaneers.
Below you'll find write-ups of my favorite props and plays for this weekend's action and one prop that covers the entire postseason.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 102.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -112
Betting against Kamara always feels risky. He's one of the best players in the NFL regardless of position. However, this is a bad matchup for him and we have two games of sample that paint a pessimistic picture of how he will fare on Sunday. Kamara had 12 carries for 16 yards and five catches for 51 – a total of 67 yards – against Tampa Bay in the opener and followed that up with nine carries for 40 yards and five catches for nine yards.
Of course, this is a whole new ballgame in the playoffs, but the Buccaneers are still stout against opposing running backs. They just allowed Washington running backs to 48 total yards on 20 total touches. That's not a clean 1:1 comp to what Kamara brings to the table, though it's worth noting.
The Saints' lack of downfield passing game effectively shrinks the field for the defense, and the Bucs seem to have the right game plan to slow Kamara. I expect this to be a sweat as Kamara should perform better than he did in the previous two outings, but I still defer to the Buccaneer defense slowing the star running back just enough to keep him under that yardage total.
Same Game Parlay: Buccaneers Money Line and OVER 52.0 +344
The first matchup went over this number and the second one would have if the Buccaneers showed any sort of pulse on offense. I'd be more inclined to go with the under if the Buccaneers hadn't turned a corner on offense down the stretch. The trio of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown is clicking at the right time and I expect Rob Gronkowski to be more involved Sunday as he won't be staying in to block the edge the way he did in Washington.
As for the Saints offense, I have my doubts about Brees and the lack of speed in the receiving corps, but I can't argue with Sean Payton's success against the Buccaneers this season, so New Orleans should be able to pull its weight as far as getting us to the total.
The Buccaneers moneyline play is the tricky part of this equation. The Saints are a rock-solid team with just two home losses – both to the No.1 seeds in their respective conferences – this season. Still, Tom Brady is playing better than Drew Brees at this stage and he has more weapons around him. I'm not expecting a Roethlisberger-esque meltdown from Brees in this spot, but he's operating with a very thin margin for error with his diminishing physical tools and a shallow group of skill players around him outside of Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. In the end, I expect Brady to outduel Brees and the Buccaneers defense to do just enough to come away with the win Sunday.
Devin Singletary Over 66.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -112
This will be a popular prop Saturday, and with good reason. Zack Moss is out with an ankle injury, so Singletary is set up to have the bulk of the snaps out of the Buffalo backfield. We have some precedent for Singletary performing well in Moss' absence, too. In Week 3 through Week 5, Singletary went over 66.5 yards from scrimmage twice, and the one time he fell short was in the bizarre Tuesday game in Tennessee.
I'd be leery of just firing on Singletary's rushing yardage prop (46.5), and it's not because of how Baltimore performed against Derrick Henry in the Wild Card round. He'll push for double-digit carries but asking him to average his customary 4.4 YPC might be a bit much. Adding the pass-catching work gives some cushion as he saw five-or-more targets in two of the three games without Moss. 66.5 yards from scrimmage is more than attainable for Singletary on Saturday given his expected role and snap share.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Anytime TD Scorer +370
Much has been made of the Davante Adams-Jalen Ramsey matchup for Saturday's game, and while I still expect Adams to play well in spite of Ramsey's blanket coverage, Green Bay is going to have to explore its other options in the passing game. Valdes-Scantling is of course a risky player to back and the long odds support that, but his big-play potential is undeniable. The 53.2 percent catch rate and the 9.7 percent drop rate are reasons for concern. However, the air yardage (70.0 per game), aDOT (18.1 yards, 99th percentile) smooth over those concerns as it's clear that he is a downfield specialist. 10 of his 33 receptions went 20-or-more yards and six of them went for 40-or-more yards.
My esteemed colleague Mario Puig astutely pointed out in his Corner Report article, the Rams' corner personnel is great but it has some elements that put them at a disadvantage against big, fast receivers. Valdes-Scantling (6-foot-4 with 4.37 speed) drawing a matchup against either Troy Hill (5-foot-11 with 4.55 speed) or Darious Williams (5-foot-9) would give him the advantage more often than not. Adams' matchup with Ramsey should steer more targets towards MVS, and he only needs to connect on one deep shot for this prop to hit. It's +370 and things are set up for Valdes-Scantling to have a real chance at finding paydirt with everything else going on in this matchup. For what it's worth, this prop was +460 on Friday afternoon.
Playoff Prop: Aaron Rodgers Most Playoff Passing Yards +800
Rehashing a pick from last week with different odds as Rodgers is now at +800 instead of +1000. Josh Allen (+230) and Tom Brady (+250) are the odds-on favorites right now and it makes sense. Allen threw for 324 yards in the Super Wildcard round and Brady threw for 381. The question now becomes how much are you expecting either the Bills or Buccaneers to make a deep run? The Bills are slim favorites over the Ravens this weekend, so it's plausible that Allen gets two more games worth of passing yards. The Buccaneers are road underdogs against a Saints team that has beaten them twice already. As you can tell, I think the Bucs find a way Sunday, so that should be two more games for Brady at minimum.
So this boils down to Rodgers playing three games and performing at the elite level at which he played during the season. Again, the basis of this bet is expecting the Packers to make it to Super Bowl Sunday. That's not a given, of course, but the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC runs through Lambeau and the Rams are too shorthanded at quarterback to pull off the upset, in my opinion. The Rams have the best defense left in the playoffs, so assuming Rodgers gets past them, he'll have more favorable scripts for the rest of the postseason.
Same Game Parlay Fanduel Odds
To find this bet, navigate to the NFL section on the FanDuel Sportsbook and then go to the 'Playoff Props' section in the navigation bar under NFL.